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SurveyUSA (10/11 - 10/13, 516 LV) Obama 55% McCain 40%
Marist (10/05 - 10/08, 757 LV) Obama 53% McCain 41%
Strategic Vision (R) (10/05 - 10/07, 1200 LV) Obama 54% McCain 40%
Rasmussen (10/06 - 10/06, 700 LV) Obama 54% McCain 41%
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Locally, the latest F&M poll in the 10th CD has McCain leading by only 46%-39% and Obama ahead in the 11th CD 47%-43%. If Mac is to win PA he needs big margins up here in the Alabama of the north.
The national map
Obama 349 McCain 171 Ties 18
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The most interesting thing that has happened in the past week is that North Dakota, Montana and Georgia are back in play. If you look at where the candidates are campaigning today it tells you what both camps are thinking. Barry is on offense with events in Missouri and Mac is playing defense trying to hold on to North Carolina and Virginia. Sarah Palin is in Lancaster, PA trying to shore up the Amish vote and increase Viagra sales in the area.
9 comments:
all a waste of time. only one poll matters
exactly, i hate to direct anyone to the bombastic ann coulter, but read her latest.
http://www.anncoulter.com/
polls don't mean shit...
Keep dreaming my friends.
Polls do matter. The battle cry of the losing candidate is "The only poll that matters is the one on election day." If the polls were close or inconsistent, you may have an argument. But since McCain hasn't lead PA in a poll since April, and since the PA RCP poll average is Obama plus 14, you can bet the house that McCain will not win Pennsylvania.
As far as Ann Coulter, there's an old saying "figures don't lie, but liars can figure."
Ann Coulter the nazi? Good source.
Hey all,
I think the Bradley effect (http://www.thenation.com/blogs/campaignmatters?bid=45&pid=268328) may have some legs when it comes to polling. People may say things one way and vote the opposite direction. Anyone remember the polls from New Hampshire Dem race?
It may not mean much in heavy Obama states, but between Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and Pennsylvania, I am still having a hard time believing those states will follow through.
I just don't think the country has changed that much over the last 25 years. As a whole we've become a bit more passive-aggressive on once outward feelings.
The race will tighten by Halloween; by that weekend the swing states will be tied. McCain's has thrown everything at Obama to no avail, true, but the final debate gave him new breath and his new talking point of "socialism" rings as a more legitemate way for voters to oppose Obama compared to the silly "look who he hangs with" attacks. If there is one thing that the majority of middle americans is opposed to it is anything with the word socialism attached to it. That's why we will never achieve national health insurance (or as the GOP pins it, "socialized medicine"). I think McCain squeaks by to victory after a long night of listening to the political talking heads.
pope george- you been smoking with the rest of the beatles?? Look McCain wins and unicorns are found. Have a wonderful time on the yellow submarine.
Hmmmm. I'm highly suspect of these polls, especially with Obama's interal polling showing him up only 2 points over McCain about a week ago (as heard on Corbett). If anyone believes, different, keep dreamin'...
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