Quinnipiac poll finds Bush support hurts SantorumIn the 2006 race for U.S. Senate, Democratic State Treasurer Robert Casey holds a 50-38 percent lead over Republican incumbent Sen. Rick Santorum. This compares to a 52-34 percent Casey lead in an October 6 Quinnipiac University poll. Pennsylvania voters disapprove 59-38 percent of the job President George W. Bush is doing. And by a 60-27 percent margin, voters say Santorum's support of President Bush hurts his chances for reelection. Even 36 percent of Republicans say supporting Bush hurts Santorum. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing? Right thing 40%- Wrong thing 55 %.
It seems all those warm fuzzy ads financed by Americans for Job Security haven't helped much. In fact they may have backfired by making an issue out of who this group is bankrolled by. From the CV:
A trade association that bought advertising touting Sen. Rick Santorum's Social Security bill violated federal election law by failing to register as a political committee and disclose its donors, state Treasurer Robert P. Casey Jr.'s Senate campaign charged Wednesday.The Casey campaign claimed in a federal complaint that Americans for Job Security is also illegally advocating Mr. Santorum's re-election. The campaign wants the Federal Election Commission to investigate the group's purchase of more than $875,000 in commercials in five television markets across the state, including the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre area, to halt further advertising and to fine the group twice that amount."If they were proud of their donors, they should tell everyone where they're getting their money," said Larry Smar, the communications and policy director for the Casey campaign.
Federal election law requires political action committees to disclose donors and contributions, but the trade association asserts it does not fall into that category. Dubke said the association stopped disclosing donors years ago because opposing politicians and reporters asked about donors instead of issues the group talked about in its ads. He denied the ads advocate the senator's re-election.
If the ads don't advocate Ricky's re-election then why do they end by asking you to call his office and tell him what a good job he is doing? What I have been reading is that this group is financed by drug and insurance companies and is based in Santorum's place of residence, Virginia.
Bush is too unpopular for an incumbent republican to win statewide right now. The candidate will immediately be linked to Social Security, the war in Iraq and other unpopular positions.
ReplyDeleteBush numbers going up fast. Watch out LVDEM, that predicion is a marginal misrepresentation of the people of the state. Santorum has it. I remember his las race and there was skepticism.
ReplyDeleteIn his last race he never trailed in any poll (really, I looked) and he ran against Ron Kink, an unfunded bumbling fool that managed to win a 7 way primary b/c the SE was bitterly divided. Also, keep in mind that Ricky was leading by some 15% in the polls heading into the general election and he won by 5%. Against a weak opponent with no party support who was outspent by a 7:1 margin statewide and 12:1 in Philly. Yet he only lost by 5%? Casey will have the money and a united party and is anything but weak.
ReplyDeleteOh, Bush' numbers in PA are actually down this month compared to last month's. There is a reason he lost here in 2004: PA voters don't particularly like him. His disapprovals are right now at 59% in PA. He only has his base right now. That's it.
Also stop to think. How many conservative Republicans have won statewide over the last 5 years. Rendell, Casey, Wagner, Baer, McCafferty, Jack Pannella, Kerry, Gore have won. Compare that to Gantman, Specter, Corbett and... well Specter is a liberal and Gantman is a judge so we can only guess that she might be conservative. Corbett is kind of conservative, but more in that economic sense, not the cultural sense. So, in statewide offices since the 2002 election, we can count at best two conservatives compared to seven Democrats and one liberal Republican.
I'm sorry, but I just don't think the GOP is in good shape to win statewide elections right now. Unless you can show me some kind of method that doesn't involve "Rick rules" or "bush is great," you will just have to deal with the fact that you are wrong and that there is no electoral math or evidence over the last 5 years to support your claims.
Santorum was down at some points to Klink.
ReplyDeleteAlso, I remember when good ole' Bobby Casey was beating Ed Rendell by double-digits...then the voters got to know who he was. It's not gonna happen. Santorum is coated with teflon and pro-life money will pour in from coast-to-coast. This will be a Corzine type media based campaign. Major TV buys. BrabenderCox will get the job done...and you better hope lil' Bobby doesn't use Shrum like he did in the Governor's primary...his media plain stunk.