I still say this may be the big surprise on election night.
Vote in the poll on the sidebar. Remember the question is who do you think will win not who you are voting for.
Like many people I dismissed Gene Stilp's chances in the Democratic primary against Bill Vinsko. He is known as the guy with the big pig and other stunts and I didn't take him seriously. Then I talked to him for an hour at the Spring Blogfest and found out that he came close to winning a state house seat in the very Republican year of 2010.
From Waynestock:
The conventional wisdom holds that Gene doesn’t have a prayer against
Republican incumbent, Lou Barletta, but conventional wisdom may not
apply to Gene Stilp.
Gene will be running in the 11th Congressional district, newly
configured to ensure Barletta’s reelection. The Republican power brokers
who drew that map certainly anticipated that Barletta would be running
against a conventional Democrat, but Gene is anything but a conventional
Democrat.
Gene appeals to voters across party lines. He has established a solid
reputation as a reformer bent on improving government, holding
officeholder accountable for their actions and fearlessly exposing
corruption....Barletta is practically unknown in the Dauphin/Cumberland/Perry part of
the 11th, and many people question his understanding of the politics,
the culture or the needs of their communities...
Incidentally, the registered voters in the new 11th are 44% GOP, 43% DEM and 12% IND.
Gene has HUGE appeal with the IND voters, and GOP voters below Luzerne County.
In an interview Barletta didn't sound like he likes his new job.
Among the many criticisms leveled by citizens at Congress is that
bipartisanship has caused stalemate in the House and Senate. The popular
opinion is that much is said and discussed by the legislators but
little comes of it.
"I'm just as frustrated as the average citizen with the gridlock," Barletta said.
The
first-term congressman said he's sought for and found opportunities to
find common ground among both Republicans and Democrats, even bucking
party leadership on at least one occasion.
He found a Democrat to
co-sponsor transportation legislation and sought Democrats' support to
revamp relief funding in the wake of a presidentially declared natural
disaster...."For me, that's dysfunctional. It doesn't matter if you're a Democrat or
Republican, we still have a responsibility to do the business of the
American people," he says. "You can have disagreements with these bills,
but I believe all the Senate should have the opportunity to vote on it,
debate it, send it back to the House and maybe we could amend it. We
could see where there's common ground."
There is more to being a Congressman than yelling about immigration.
Cue McG
ReplyDeleteOkay G...Here goes..Stilp has no chance of winning. If "Give Stilp as chance" is a platform for election Rove would be laughing hysterically at the notion. Actually that editorial speaks to the moderate stance Barletta has taken in Congress and why he is frustrated. Being frustrated at the gridlock is no justification to state "it sounds like he doesn't like his job". How is someone like Stilp who will not be in the majority or even close to the leaders in the majority going to effect compromise? At least Barletta's voice is being heard among Republican leadership. Stilp only has a voice when there is a prop attached to it. If he only lost to Helm by 300 votes why didn't he challenge her again? He is like Steve Urban, run for any office, even 2 at a time, hoping he wins something. At a time when Stilp ran for Lieutenant Governor he embraced the Democrats and wanted to put them back in power while slamming Veon, DeWeese, etc. A opportunist at best. Again no chance. Barletta is practically unknown in Dauphin, Cumberland, Perry yet write he is known for his national platform on immigration...well okay believe that if you will... I'll stick with the informed way one gauges the outcome. Stilp hasn't moved the needle so lots of luck on your prediction.
ReplyDeleteI think Stelp will actually win. Barletta has shot himself in the foot several time and he has very few toes remaining. He voted put Tobyhanna in danger of closing, he voted for the Paul Ryan budget twice to privatize Social Security and end Medicare with a coucher program so why would a working class American even consider sending Barletta back to Congress? I honestly think Lou is done!
ReplyDeleteHey McGruff,
ReplyDeleteYou are pretty busy posting your talking points everywhere. I just have one question for you:
When Stilp wins, will you follow up any of your "he has no chance" statements with a "boy was I wrong"?
Something tells me you won't.
I find it pretty interesting that the only poll results on this site that aren't being measured anywhere else is the Barletta / Stilp race.
ReplyDeleteThe rest are abundant and the numbers your poll is showing are right on par with the polls I'm seeing everywhere else.
That being the case, one could make the assumption that the same is true for the Barletta / Stilp poll.
That would explain why Lou went negative right out of the gate and saturated the airwaves with his commercials. He's probably seeing similar numbers.
Good call Gort42 on your prediction. Seems to be valid.
Heard Gene on Corbett driving home. Excellent. I think Barletta is in real trouble. Hopefully he doesn't figure that out and dump a million dollars into tv ads.
ReplyDelete