Predictions 118th HD and 17th CD

 
Sorry I have been out of the loop for the last 2 days but I had some family obligations to tend to. I'll start off with the easy ones. You can beat me up on later posts.

Mike Carrol will be reelected in the 118th HD. Terrance O'Connor is the Republican candidate but has not made much of an effort other than putting on tricorner hat and yelling into a bullhorn from the back of a pick up truck just like he did last time. Carroll has pleasantly surprised me with his desire to overhaul the campaign finance laws (there aren't many) of Pennsylvania and reforming the redistricting process.



Karen Boback is unopposed in the 117th HD as is Eddie Day Pashinski in the 121st HD. I told Pashinski  that I'm not voting for him this time. More on that later. As a political junkie I hate unopposed races. Sorry but I have to put up James favorite Karen pic.






In the newfangled gerrymandered 17th Congressional District Matt Cartwright (D) will win in a blowout over Laureen Cummings(R). Probably 60%+. Cartwright beat incumbent  Blue Dog Tim Holden in the primary in the overwhelmingly Democratic district because people wanted a real Democrat not Republican lite. It's great that both candidates have run positive campaigns discussing issues. My contact at the DCCC tells me that Cartwright is up 26% in their latest poll.

If you are still undecided here is the video from WVIA debate.

 

Watch 2012 PA 17th Congressional District Debate on PBS. See more from WVIA Special Presentations.

Libertarians on the move

I've always had an interest in the minor parties and have criticized them for running candidates for President, Governor and Senate in races that they can't possibly win instead of concentrating on local races and building a bench. The local Greens seems to be defunct but the Libertarian Party has taken my advice and has a slate of candidates in the local elections. Whatever you think of the individuals I think it is an accomplishment that they are on the ballot. I like a choice in an election.

3 Libs are running for Luzerne County Council.

Mike Lacey

Brian Bergman

Tim Mullen

In the Wilkes-Barre mayor's race they give us Betsy Summers and Tim Russel want's to be the Mayor or something in Elmenton. Where is Elmonten?

Lou Jasikoff likes a CV headline It says “Libertarians have gotten their wish.” Here in Northeast Pennsylvania it is the Libertarian Party and candidates driving the bus. We are the story and the opportunities are enormous. All day, everyday the news outlets are talking about these races, and all day everyday not one, not two, but many Libertarians are being interviewed, and more often than not our candidates are on multiple shows each day.
We have opportunities like never before to ask questions like: "Let me phrase this in another way. Are you in favor of funding gang violence, are you in favor of funding terrorism? Of course you are not. But this is what America's drug policies do today. What is your solution?Throw more people in jail? Heck we can't keep drugs out of jail. 70% of women today are in jail for non-violent drug abuses. 4% of the worlds population and 25% of the worlds prison population. Is this the America you want?The list goes on and on, but hopefully you get my point. We know we are right on the issues, and given the opportunity we will succeed.

In the 2010 election for state rep Tim Mulen got 15% and if he can keep that support he may win a county council seat. He answered the questions but to him by LuLac.




Tim Mullen on Storm Politics

Predictions: 119th, 120th and 116th State Rep races.

In the overwhelmingly Democratic 119th District I expect the Democrat to win the race to succeed John Yudichak. Gerald Mullary had a rally with Yuddy on Friday night that should seal the deal. Republican Rick Arnold has run a great campaign but I don't think he can overcome the registration numbers and Libertarian Brian Bergman will drain votes away from him.


The 120th race has been my favorite this cycle as I have got to know and like all 3 candidates. But then I am like the Will Rogers of the local blogosphere and all 3 have mixed it up in the comments of this blog. The story in this race is the Libertarian candidate Tim Mullen who got 2700+ signatures on his nominating petitions and has had enough financial support to open an office in Kingston. I don't remember a local 3rd party candidate ever being taken this serious. That being said Phyllis Mundy will be reelected and the real race is who will finish second.


State House Democratic leader Todd Eachus has been beat up pretty good over his rides on Robert Powell's jet this last week and his one TV spot attacks Tarah Toohill for her connections to the juvie brothers. He is worried. I think Eachus will hold on but this could be the surprise of the night. Got to love this spot that forced Eachus into a debate.

Meet the 119th State Rep District candidates

119th District State Represenative John Yudichak(D) has his sights on the 14th Senate District seat held by retiring Ray Musto. He had a fundraiser on Sunday that was well attended but was not announced on his website or Facebook pages. His campaign hasn't updated his online outlets since the primary. Get on the stick guys and use every tool available to communicate your message.

Democrat Gerald Mullery hopes to fill his shoes in the 119th and has a meeting planned today at Mil & Jims Parkway Inn, 24 W. Kirmar Ave., Nanticoke starting at 7PM.

I spotted a sign at the Plymouth Kielbasa Festival that said GOP nominee Rick Arnold will be at Happy Pizza in Plymouth, Friday, September 10th at 6PM. I'm not sure if this is a go because it's not listed on on his website or Facebook.

The Libertarian candidate Brian Bergman doesn't have any events listed this week on his website or Facebook page but will be at the NEPA Libertarians Monthly Meeting Sunday, September 19th,
2pm at Grotto Pizza in Edwardsville.

Note to the candidates, send me a reminder of your upcoming event and I will plug it.

Update: The Rick Arnold camp confirms that he will be at Happy Pizza on September 10th and also has a shindig scheduled for Sunday, September 26, 2010 from 4-6 at the Alden Manor in Nanticoke.
Visit his website for the details.

To keep track of all upcoming local Republican candidate events visit the calendar page at the Luzerne County GOP website.

Libertarians make the cut

It looks like the local Libertarian state house candidates have enough signatures to spare to get on the November ballot and survive any challenges.

14th District Senate candidate Betsy Summers needed 1063 and got 2279. Brian Bergman's goal in the 119th State House District was 389 signatures and he too filed almost twice the minimum with 625. Tim Mullen's number just blew me away. Mullen has been working hard going door to door on the west side needing 436 signatures and was able to convince 2279 of his neighbors to sign his petitions. Remember that the Democratic and Republican state house candidates only need 300 signatures to get on the primary ballot. Signatures don't necessarily translate into votes but the Lib's have to be happy with these results and the Republican candidates should be worried. I doubt they will mount a challenge to the petitions but anything is possible. The local GOP's best signature challenger in the past, Liz Sichler, has other worries.

Links to candidate websites.


Senate 14


Steve Urban (R)

John Yudichak (D)

Betsy Summers (L)



State Rep 120th


Phyllis Mundy (D) incumbent

Bill Goldsworthy (R)

Tim Mullen (L)



State Rep 119th


Rick Arnold (R)

Gerald Mullery (D)

Brian Bergman (L)

Libertarians make a good point

And issue a challenge.

If your not a Democrat or a Republican the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania makes you jump through all kinds of hoops to get on the ballot.


I got this press release from the NEPA Libertarian Party.


Wilkes-Barre, PA— According to Northeast Pennsylvania Libertarian Chairman Lou Jasikoff, “the Libertarian Party will be wrapping up their ballot initiative over the next few weeks, and will submit their signed petitions to Harrisburg on July 30th. The deadline for submitting petitions is August 3rd and the Libertarian Party is challenging all candidates to sign the petition as a show of good faith, especially in light of Bonusgate, that they truly believe in the democratic process and that all qualified candidates should be allowed to compete in the arena of ideas.”

“I think it is important for all the candidates to be on record as to whether they are willing to sign the petition because it has been the Republicans and Democrats that have made the rules by which another Party or Independent candidate must meet to be placed on the general ballot. We will focus on those candidates within the districts that we have candidates running for office, specifically John Yudichak, Steve Urban, Phyllis Mundy, Bill Goldsworthy, Rick Arnold, Gerald Mullery, Dan Rae, and David Millard, but will be encouraging all candidates to sign” said Jasikoff.

With the Republican and Democratic parties having a strangle-hold on access to the ballot, candidates from other political camps must go through the lengthy process of getting signatures from registered voters on their petitions to run. The process for Libertarian candidates Betsy Summers, Tim Mullen, Brian Bergman and Tom Anderson began in the cold and rain on primary day.

"Candidates from the major parties say they support all of those who are qualified to be on the ballot. Now is the time for their actions to speak louder than their words," noted Betsy Summers, Senate candidate 14th District.

Jasikoff concluded, “We explain to potential signers that this is not an endorsement but simply an effort to allow them, to allow us, to be on the ballot. That we have men and women dying in Iraq so they can have free elections there and we should not have to fight tooth and nail to get on the ballot here. We hope our current legislators and opponents agree and we will post their responses to our requests after August 3rd.

Good luck getting any of the Republican or Democratic candidates to sign on to this. But if I was running any of the Democratic campaigns I would have my people out there helping them get signatures.