Monday, October 11, 2010

Poll results

I didn't ask who you were voting for but asked who would win the PA-10th CD race. My polically savy readers responded 2 to 1 that Chris Carney would be reelected.

According to the polls this election is neck and neck.

Lycoming poll shows Carney, Marino in dead heat

U.S. Rep. Chris Carney holds a 43 to 40 percent edge over Tom Marino in the Lycoming College telephone poll, conducted Sept. 26-30. Given the margin of error of plus or minus 5.1 percent, they “are statistically tied,” said Jonathan Williamson, chairman of the political science department at Lycoming.

Sixteen percent of the 370 people who responded to political science students’ questions were undecided as to how they would vote Nov. 2.

Momentum Analysis recently polled the district and said Carney is leading by 8 points.

CLARKS SUMMIT -- A poll conducted for Congressman Chris Carney's campaign shows him with an 8-point lead over Tom Marino. The results of the poll, conducted Sept. 23-25, show Congressman Carney's strength in his campaign against Tom Marino and come as enthusiasm builds throughout northeast and central Pennsylvania for his reelection.

Attached is a poll memo from Momentum Analysis, which conducted the poll on behalf of Carney for Congress (PA-10). It shows the congressman with a 46 percent to 38 percent lead over Marino. Among respondents who had voted in at least four of the last six general elections, Congressman Carney's lead widens to 50 percent to 35 percent. In addition, half of the voters who know enough about Marino to form an opinion view him unfavorably. The poll surveyed 400 likely voters in the 10th District and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.

"We're pleased to see the enthusiasm and momentum that we are feeling all throughout the District for Congressman Carney's campaign illustrated in this poll," said Josh Drobnyk, Carney for Congress campaign spokesman. "It has become increasingly evident that voters throughout the district want someone with honor and integrity representing them, not a candidate like Tom Marino, whose lack of ethics and overall incompetence we learn more about every day."

I trust this poll more than others. In 2006 Momentum Analysis final poll in the race predicted that Carney would win by 6%, he won by 6 points. In 2008 they had him ahead by 12% and he won by 13%.

Charlie Cook weighs in on polling:

Probably 90 percent of the public polling in statewide and district races is mediocre at best, and much of it is very close to worthless....My view is that most academic polling, as well as the polling sponsored by local television stations and newspapers, is dime-store junk.

The far more sophisticated polling is done by top-notch professional polling firms for campaigns, parties and major business and labor organizations. These polls are considerably more expensive and the methodology is more rigorous.

The Vice Pesident was in town today to support Carney.

Vice President Biden wraps up Scranton visit

Biden campaigns in area


Anonymous said...

what gort kanjo hires kevin lynn and cant hire you. i thought u and fast eddie mitchell are pals and paul mini me maher. its good u didnt get hired what a sinking ship that campaign is. walked into the office the other day and the people working for kanjo i wouldnt hire to water my plants. what do u expect from someone who has joe do nothing werner, paul i never worked a day in my life maher, and eddie i like running campaigns for losers mitchell.

Anonymous said...

i wonder how the congressman can hire someone who repeatedly admitted on air that he used illegal drugs. this is a bad judgment call and now i am not sure who i will vote for, if anyone one.
i am life long dem, can't imagine myself voting for barletta, but i am perplexed. i don't want my congressman's office to be manned by a stoner.

Anonymous said...

We have some potentail slander going on here...and I am NOT polically savvy!

Anonymous said...

for one it would be libel but what is the issue. i have heard kevin talk about his use of "substances" on the air as well?

McGruff said...

My dear friend Gort....I didn't ask who you were voting for but asked who would win the PA-11th CD race uhhh the way I see it neither one can win the 11th...hehehehe....take care...

As for the other comments it is neither slander nor libel if what is being stated is the truth.

Gort said...


Thanks McG, it's fixed.