Monday, September 27, 2010

PA-10th and 11th Congressional District polls

On Sunday the Times-Leader published polls of the 10th and 11th CD races that they paid for from some oufit in Maine that I never have heard of that has a track record of consumer research but as far as I can tell is new to the political arena. The thing that jump out at me was the small sample size, only 221 voters in the 1th and 197 in the 10th with an margin of error (MOE) of about 7%. With that small number of responses I think the MOE should be much higher. The methodology is suspect as it was a push button telephone poll.

The results

11th CD

Respondents said that if the election were held now, 43 percent would favor Republican Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta and 32 percent would vote for Kanjorski, the 13-term incumbent Democrat. Undecided voters were reported at 25 percent.

I have a really hard time believing that 25% of likely voters haven't made up their minds in this race.

In the 11th District, 221 voters were polled – 42 percent Democrats and 42 percent Republicans. Even though the 11th District has a 57 percent to 31 percent Democratic edge!

My friends over at Pure Bunkum pick over the quotes from Ed Mitchell in the TL. I like this one.

“Last week, The Times Leader polled in the lieutenant governor’s race even though Pennsylvanians don’t vote for lieutenant governor separately. He or she runs with the governor candidate as part of a team. The TL hasn’t any credibility in the polling business and should just stick to printing papers.”

10th CD

This one is even more suspect.

Of the 197 registered and likely voters polled in the 10th District, 51 percent are registered Republicans, 33 percent are registered Democrats and 14 percent said they were a member of a third party or unaffil

The last time I checked the district was 49% Republican, 41% Democrats.

Forty percent chose Tom Marino, a former U.S. Attorney from Lycoming County; 36 percent said Chris Carney, a two-term representative from Susquehanna County; and 24 percent were undecided.

Reading all these TL polling stories in Sunday's newspaper a couple of things came to mind. First of all I want to say that Richard Conner is a local hero for rescuing the Times-Leader and keeping the 2 newspaper market alive in Wilkes-Barre (unlike most of the country) but I think you got your pocket picked, Rich. Next time hire a more experienced company. The second thing is the TL reporters that had to write up this poll in a bunch of different stories had to bite their tongues (fingertips) or the editors clipped it to death. They are pro's.

Another poll from a more experienced firm came out today. More on that soon.


Red Lackawanna said...

I think the close race in the Times Leader poll is a shocker, I would have figured that Carney would be cruising to a win here. It should be interesting to see if Marino can now raise some money with these polls.

Anonymous said...

Doesn't the TL publisher own a paper in Maine? Isn't he also hardcore republican?

PoorRichard said...

The TL owner could not vote Democrat if his life depended on it. Are these polls real, are the comic news? The hard core Republicans will vote for Marino and the voters with brains will vote for Carney. Now the question remains, Do the voters with a brain outnumber the numbskulls?