Wednesday, June 18, 2008

Pennsylvania 11th CD poll

According to a Harrisburg Republican outfit that I've never heard of Republican Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta has a lead over incumbent Democratic Congressman Paul Kanjorski 47%-42% with 11% for other (Kurt Shotko ?). Danny points out the small sample of 400 likely voters with a margin of error of 4.9% which makes it a statistical tie. Without the methodology and cross tabs it's hard to decide if this is a valid picture of the race. It's not uncommon for a campaign to put out favorable poll numbers in a race whatever the source. Barletta's campaign claims that the DCCC also has done some polling but they won't release the results and Kanjo's campaign manager, Ed Mitchell, is mum.

Capitol Ideas reports that Paul Kanjorski has bought a mess of television time in his re-election battle with El Alcalde de Hazleton, Lou Barletta starting today.

4 comments:

JediMaster9780 said...

I figured that this race was going to be closer than expected. Of course the margin of error here leaves it a statistical tie.

It is an old poll from back in March. I wonder how any of these numbers have changed.

Anonymous said...

How accurate can any poll be that includes 11% for Kurt Shotko!!!?????

ccdemo said...

i find it hard to believe that mayor lou can overcome the enormous registration advantage that kanjo has, despite what he and his polls say. the democrats in the 11th district will be out in full force this november being a presidential election year. are that many demos going to jump ship and vote for one issue lou over kanjo, who's been a reliable and productive congressman for the district?

Anonymous said...

ccdemo, I don't see it your way.

Fact 1. http://www.taxpayer.net/user_uploads/file/Database%20Docs/membernumbers.xls According to this organization Kanjorski is one of the bottom three for bringing money back to Pennsylvania among both Congressmen and Senators, 21 in all. Pretty dismall record for a politician that is telling us he is bringing all this money back to his district. If you call that productive then you have been hoodwinked into believing some very misleading press releases by the Kanjo camp.

I look at it this way. Congressmen are expected to bring money back to their district. That is a given. You give an "ATTABOY" when they above and beyond. Top person John Murtha $159,940,000.00 Paul Kanjorski $2,955,000.00. After 24 years in Congress this is the best he can do for fiscal 2008. Check it out. Time for new blood with new ideas. GO LOU GO!