Tuesday, April 10, 2012

Holden camp claims 10 point lead

Responding to the internal poll of Matt Cartwight's campaign showing him up by 6 points Tim Holden's campaign manager claims that Holden is up by 10.

Pennsylvania: Challenger’s Poll Shows Tim Holden Trailing

Eric Nagy, Holden’s campaign manager, said their own campaign polling showed the Congressman ahead — although he declined to give any more details about the survey.
“Our polling shows us up by 10 points, but we’re not taking any chances,” Nagy said. “We will run like we’re down 10 points.”

We all know to take internal polls with a grain of salt but it has been my experience that polling outfits that tell you what you want to hear instead of what is actually going on don't last long in this business. Credibility is everything since it costs about $20,000 to a Congressional District poll.

There seems to be other dynamics going on in this race. Holden is the longtime incumbent that has lined up all the endorsements from elected officials, labor unions and Democratic county committees. He seems to be winning the yard sign primary especially since Cartwright's turn into kites on a windy day. But most of the voters in this newfangled district don't know who he is and Matt Cartwright is the hometown boy from Moosic in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre market. I don't know how much his TV show, The Law and You, raised his name recognition as I have never seen it. The Munley, Munley and Cartwright law firm spots can't hurt as far as putting his name out there even if you're like me and wish the ban on lawyer ads had never been lifted.

Then there is an anti-incumbent mood of the electorate.

I was thinking along the same lines but I don't want to be accused of plagiarism.

Steve Singiser in KOS

But, it would seem that the general level of discontent felt by the electorate has manifested itself in what can be described as at least a moderately hostile environment for incumbents. My educated guess? Mean Jean won't be the only incumbent out of a job by the end of this primary cycle, and that modestly "pissed off" mood in the electorate may well lead to a more volatile November at the House level than we previously might've guessed or thought. It may not be uniformly good news for Republicans or Democrats, by the way. I merely suspect that incumbents with halfway decent challengers might be more imperiled this year than most analysts are currently willing to admit.

This comment on my last post got my hackles up.

Where did they take this poll, Glenmaura? Do you print word for word anything Matt Cartwright sends you? A little while back you and another one of the far left blogs ran a story that read exactly same. The poll I heard about had Holden up by well over double digits. Anyway we can agree there is only one poll that counts and thats in 2 weeeks. Unfortunatly for Cartwright the campaign finance reports are due in a few days, then we'll see how much he raised and how much Mitt, opps I mean Matt put in from his own fortune. I'm sure it will be put down as a loan paid back at a nice interest rate.

I posted the PR without my own comments because I thought it was news and was pressed for time. I would be happy to do the same thing for the Holden camp if you guys would add me to your distribution list and I'm very surprised that an Internet savvy guy like Trippi doesn't have a staffer doing blogger outreach. The only Internet presence the Holden campaign has is trolling the comments of this and other sights like PoliticsPA. As far as another trendy lefty posting a similar story all I can say is that great minds think alike. You must be new to this blog as I have been accused of being a Republican more than once especially when I write about Luzerne County politics. The CFR's are inside baseball and I like the Glenmura and Mitt references, jolly good show chap. Well done.


Anonymous said...

You are 100% correct,I am new to the blog experience and probably don't understand quite how it works. The poll I heard is the one Eric was talking about even though it was 13%. I am not with the Holden campaign other than being for him. Let me give you a complement, out of all the blogs I've been reading yours is the most professionaly done. As far as the Luzerne County reference, if your're going after corruption (Dem. GOP,right or left) count me in.

Gort said...

Well said 6:10. Come up with a handle such as your initials or something so we can track your posts.

Gort said...

Try using HP for Holden Poster

Anonymous said...

I don't think Holden is up nearly as much as his campaign manager says he is. Eric Nagy, in fact, told a group of people that I happened to be part of once that now that the district is more Democratic that Holden will vote more left-wing and that his issue positions will change accordingly -- in other words, he will tell us anything we want to hear in order to get our votes. Tim Holden is Pennsylvania's Mitt Romney! Principles schminciples!

In addition, I love the "Let's Keep Congressman Holden" signs in the [vacant] storefront in Wilkes-Barre: How can we keep him, when we never had him, nor wanted him, in the first place?