Monday, April 23, 2012

Prediction in the 17th CD

In the PA-17th CD race I think Matt Cartwright will win. I think he has run a better campaign and campaigns do matter . The only call I got from the Holden camp were robo calls from the AFL-CIO that annoy us all. An actual person called me from the Cartwright camp and he is running a better ground game than Holden.  An empty W-B "HQ"  tells me all I need to know. The Cartwright camp has done a great job of reaching out to voters and bloggers while the Holden brain trust seems to be relying on endorsements from the Democratic establishment. Governor Rendell endorsed Holden which is good for a press release and not much else. The Cartwright camp is crowing about endorsements from the local papers which don't hurt but many other candidates went down in flames after being the pick of the editorial boards. The one endorsement that carries weight with me is Kevin Blaum's .

Our online poll of Gort 42 readers is predicting a 6 point Cartwright win. I agree. I think there is an anti-incumbent sentiment out there. The polls always show that Congress is unpopular but the local yokel is still popular. Tim Holden is not our local guy.

1 comment:

Pope George Ringo said...

I still stand by the "sign" theory. I have seen far more Holden signs in front "yards", not vacant lots. People live in those middle class homes and common logic states they would not have a "strange" sign on their land. They are voting for Holden. There are way more, at least in my neck of the woods, where I have seen very very few Cartwright signs.

I will be voting for Cartwright but my instincts tell me that Holden will win in a squeaker, at least.

Hope I am wrong.
God Bless.