Tuesday, October 30, 2012

PA 11th Congressional District Poll

I still say this may be the big surprise on election night.

Vote in the poll on the sidebar. Remember the question is who do you think will win not who you are voting for.

Like many people I dismissed Gene Stilp's chances in the Democratic primary against Bill Vinsko. He is known as the guy with the big pig and other stunts and I didn't take him seriously. Then I talked to him for an hour at the Spring Blogfest and found out that he came close to winning a state house seat in the very Republican year of 2010.

From Waynestock:

The conventional wisdom holds that Gene doesn’t have a prayer against Republican incumbent, Lou Barletta, but conventional wisdom may not apply to Gene Stilp.
Gene will be running in the 11th Congressional district, newly configured to ensure Barletta’s reelection. The Republican power brokers who drew that map certainly anticipated that Barletta would be running against a conventional Democrat, but Gene is anything but a conventional Democrat.
Gene appeals to voters across party lines. He has established a solid reputation as a reformer bent on improving government, holding officeholder accountable for their actions and fearlessly exposing corruption....Barletta is practically unknown in the Dauphin/Cumberland/Perry part of the 11th, and many people question his understanding of the politics, the culture or the needs of their communities...
Incidentally, the registered voters in the new 11th are 44% GOP, 43% DEM and 12% IND.
Gene has HUGE appeal with the IND voters, and GOP voters below Luzerne County.

In an interview  Barletta  didn't sound like he likes his new job.

Among the many criticisms leveled by citizens at Congress is that bipartisanship has caused stalemate in the House and Senate. The popular opinion is that much is said and discussed by the legislators but little comes of it.
"I'm just as frustrated as the average citizen with the gridlock," Barletta said.
The first-term congressman said he's sought for and found opportunities to find common ground among both Republicans and Democrats, even bucking party leadership on at least one occasion.
He found a Democrat to co-sponsor transportation legislation and sought Democrats' support to revamp relief funding in the wake of a presidentially declared natural disaster...."For me, that's dysfunctional. It doesn't matter if you're a Democrat or Republican, we still have a responsibility to do the business of the American people," he says. "You can have disagreements with these bills, but I believe all the Senate should have the opportunity to vote on it, debate it, send it back to the House and maybe we could amend it. We could see where there's common ground."

There is more to being a Congressman than yelling about immigration.


Gort said...

Cue McG

McGruff said...

Okay G...Here goes..Stilp has no chance of winning. If "Give Stilp as chance" is a platform for election Rove would be laughing hysterically at the notion. Actually that editorial speaks to the moderate stance Barletta has taken in Congress and why he is frustrated. Being frustrated at the gridlock is no justification to state "it sounds like he doesn't like his job". How is someone like Stilp who will not be in the majority or even close to the leaders in the majority going to effect compromise? At least Barletta's voice is being heard among Republican leadership. Stilp only has a voice when there is a prop attached to it. If he only lost to Helm by 300 votes why didn't he challenge her again? He is like Steve Urban, run for any office, even 2 at a time, hoping he wins something. At a time when Stilp ran for Lieutenant Governor he embraced the Democrats and wanted to put them back in power while slamming Veon, DeWeese, etc. A opportunist at best. Again no chance. Barletta is practically unknown in Dauphin, Cumberland, Perry yet write he is known for his national platform on immigration...well okay believe that if you will... I'll stick with the informed way one gauges the outcome. Stilp hasn't moved the needle so lots of luck on your prediction.

Anonymous said...

I think Stelp will actually win. Barletta has shot himself in the foot several time and he has very few toes remaining. He voted put Tobyhanna in danger of closing, he voted for the Paul Ryan budget twice to privatize Social Security and end Medicare with a coucher program so why would a working class American even consider sending Barletta back to Congress? I honestly think Lou is done!

Anonymous said...

Hey McGruff,
You are pretty busy posting your talking points everywhere. I just have one question for you:

When Stilp wins, will you follow up any of your "he has no chance" statements with a "boy was I wrong"?

Something tells me you won't.

Anonymous said...

I find it pretty interesting that the only poll results on this site that aren't being measured anywhere else is the Barletta / Stilp race.
The rest are abundant and the numbers your poll is showing are right on par with the polls I'm seeing everywhere else.

That being the case, one could make the assumption that the same is true for the Barletta / Stilp poll.

That would explain why Lou went negative right out of the gate and saturated the airwaves with his commercials. He's probably seeing similar numbers.

Good call Gort42 on your prediction. Seems to be valid.

Anonymous said...

Heard Gene on Corbett driving home. Excellent. I think Barletta is in real trouble. Hopefully he doesn't figure that out and dump a million dollars into tv ads.