Dr. Bill Fitz has some predictions

Guest post from a blog buddy. Anyone else who wants to throw out some thoughts is welcome. Just email your picks and I will post it.



Bill Fitzpatrick’s election 2006 Endorsements and Analysis and Picks

NEPA

PA House-118*

I endorse both candidates, Tatu is very qualified and knowledgeable, while Carroll is Yuddy’s Chief of Staff, which goes a long way for me. This will be a close race; obviously the Pittston (Luzerne) part will go for Carroll and the Monroe part will go for Tatu. I think Santorum’s GOP turnout machine will be helpful for Tatu, but in 2004 over 1000 more people voted in the Luzerne County then in Monroe County, and Monroe was close while Luzerne was clearly for the Democrats. I was thinking about this race as I wrote and researched some numbers. I have no feeling on the issues and since the biggest issue in NEPA is Pork neither has delivered that yet. (I don’t think Carroll is claiming Yuddy’s pork like Baker did for Lemound and Ridge.) The district leans democrat and when the Democrat is qualified the Democrat wins. Carroll is qualified; Tatu who is also qualified but she does not have anything special to derail Carroll. This race has 3 possible outcomes Carroll wins handily (close but never in doubt), Carroll wins in a squeaker, or Tatu wins in a squeaker. So the odds are D Carroll Wins.

PA House 120

I endorse neither candidate, I met Mundy and she disappointed me. I was on a tour of the capitol with other King’s students and was introduced to her; she started “campaigning” and I think given the situation she was out of line. The other candidate is just a nut job, not a right wing nut job, they are cool, just a nut job in general. I predict D Mundy Wins
PA House 121*
Again I endorse neither candidate, Katsock is an organist and Eddie Day is a Teacher, but a music teacher not a real teacher. Neither is qualified I say D Day wins based on registration but I think it will be closer then Blaum/Katsock in 2004

PA Senate 20

I endorse Baker, because she is qualified and I agree with her on most issues. The other guy seems qualified but I just don’t agree with him. Baker wins as voters in that district split their tickets voting for Santorum, then Carney, then for Baker. R Baker Wins.

PA Senate 14

I endorse Musto, he is running unopposed, but I endorse him because he is a great guy. On the above-mentioned tour where I met Phyllis Mundy, Musto was our host. He gave us access to the floor of both Chambers and introduced us to many people such as Mundy, Bob Jubileer, and crazy Lt Gov CBK. Musto did not talk politics and gave us candy.(now that’s a politician) He only said good things about all his colleagues from both sides of the isle. I gained so much respect for him I bit my tongue when I met Bob Jubileer; I wish Mundy had that approach. I predict D Musto wins in a landslide.

US House PA-10*

I endorse not voting for Don Sherwood, and the only way one can do that is to vote for Chris Carney. NEPA and the NEPA GOP needs a Flood like leader in Congress and Don Sherwood is not that. In 2008 any GOPer will defeat Carney. Let’s hope we get a good one who will be there for a long time. I have some great suggestions as mentioned above GOPers split their tickets in the 10th voting for Carney and Santorum and GOP the rest of the way down. D Carney wins

US House PA-11


I endorse Leonardi. Dr. Joe is a practical conservative who is in this race for the people. He is willing to take on both national and local issues. Kanjo has been here to long and is corrupt; he is basically doing the same thing Curt Weldon is being investigated for. But as mentioned most of the people of NEPA worship pork and Kanjo is their High Priest, D Kanjo wins.

Other PA Races

Governor

I unenthusiastically endorse Lynn Swann. I agree with him and not Rendell, but something in me loves Rendell’s political skill. His willingness to praise Santorum against his party to get Republican votes is awesome. My first Political Science teacher was not at Catholic U or Kings but was Chris Matthews, and Rendel plays Hardball. D Fast Eddie Wins

Senate*

I endorse Rick Santorum. I can explain this based on how unqualified Bob Casey because State Treasurer and Auditor General are less important jobs then State Rep and County Commissioner. There are many other reasons but I am endorsing Rick for what he has done and stands for. Rick is the Senate’s go to guy concerning Aids in Africa, just ask Bono. Rick is fighting for lower taxes, and is articulating a conservative philosophy for helping the poor. Finally Rick a voice crying in the wilderness on Islamic Fascism and recognizes the need to stop genocide in Sudan as part of the War on Terror. Finally R Rick will win, He has the turnout machine and in general Democrats will not turn put and vote. I have faith that in the end the people will pull for Rick

US House PA 4*

I endorse R Hart and she wins. Its close but she has the money and the machine to keep her seat

US House PA 6*

I endorse R Gerlach and he wins. The race is virtually tied and he has a much better turnout machine.

US House PA 7*

I endorse Weldon, Fair or not the FBI allegations will hurt and his machine will close the gap but not enough. D Sestak wins

US House PA 8*

I endorse R Mike Fitzpatrick and he wins. Mike is just a great guy and I every time I read about him I am more impressed. He has a 5-10 point lead, and he has the turn out machine to ice the cake. Look for Mike Fitzpatrick to lead the SEPA GOP after this election especially if Weldon loses. Specter is too old and Gerlach will always a close race. After Mike Survives, the only time he has to worry about an election is if he runs for something higher.

US House PA 13

I endorse neither candidate, Alison Schwartz is huge liberal, but she has pleased me by voting for the Patriot Act and strongly supporting Mike Fitz’s anti Mumia legislation. Even though she is more liberal the Joe Hoffel, she is not as annoying, but I cannot endorse her because of her very pro-abortion stances. Raj seems to not care about the district. He also has no strategy other than shock, that being said D Schwartz wins by a large margin, maybe over 60 percent. I vote in the 13th, I am writing in Mike Fitzpatrick instead of voting for Raj, Also I cannot vote against Alison this term because her office hooked me up with inauguration tickets.

PA House 42*

I endorse R Mark Harris and he wins. Mark shocked the world with his victory or the incumbent in the primary and is now in a close election in the general. He has all the momentum, this is a swing district and Mark will win because he cannot be out flanked on government reform. He also has the balls to challenge the House Speaker of his own party. But don’t worry he has enough money to keep his momentum.

PA House 151*

I endorse not voting for Gene McGill, he cheated on his wife and since he got kicked out of the house and is living at taxpayer expense. Rick Tailor is a liberal but favors government reform. I thought McGill would still pull it off but than he wrote a letter supporting a child molester. After talking to a notorious ticket splitter, who has forgave McGill for the pay raise but now has had enough of him. I think that is the mood of the district. I think D Tailor wins.

PA House 152*

I endorse Thomas Murt. He is super qualified. He has been on the School Board and Township Council. He was in both Iraq Wars. Like Harris Murt defeated an incumbent in the primary, so it will be hard to out flank him on reform. His democratic opponent, Mike Paston even said Thomas Murt will be harder to beat than the incumbent. The voters of the 152 have always split their tickets sometimes they vote Republican or Democrat for High offices but always vote Republican for State Senator and lower. R Murt Wins.

PA Senate 12

I endorse Greenleaf, despite the pay raise Greenleaf will win because he has a long record of past accomplishments mostly protecting children. I still endorse him because he has enthusiastically campaigned for Thomas Murt. So I think he learned his lesson. He wins because no one knows who Albert is except me. I think that is why R Greenleaf will easily be reelected.

Other Big Battles in the Country

CT House Seats*

Three incumbent GOPers are in trouble, I predict Chris Shays hangs but I am not sure of the other ones. R Shays wins

IN House Seats

Another 3 GOP House seats are up for grabs, I predict that the GOP holds on to at least 2 but I can’t give a prediction of which seats.

CT Senate*

I Liberman Wins, The GOP has done a nice job quietly supporting Joe

MD Senate*

Momentum is for Michael Steele. Black Leaders are endorsing him Left and Right. Three things can happen. Many Blacks stick with the Dems, many (over 30%) vote for Steele, or many don’t vote. If either of the latter two happens R Steele Wins

MO Senate*

Turnout turn out turn out R Talent Wins

MT

Turnout turn out turn out will keep Burns close but to close to call

VA Senate*

Turnout turn out turn out R Allen Wins

NJ Senate*

In 2004 Bush was closing the gap in NJ but it was into close on Election Day, history repeats itself D Menendez Wins.

OH Senate

Turnout turn out turn out, DeWine can will, but to close to call

RI Senate*

Chaffey has never had momentum D Whitehouse wins

MD GOV*

Erlich Wins, he has done to Good job, the only reasoned is in trouble is because MD is so Democratic.
I made 26 predictions but only 19 can be considered not obvious, and I have wimped out and called 2 tossups.

Overall

The Democrats will gain seats in all areas, but I believe that the Republican Turnout machine will be a counter balance races. Also it is hard to beat an incumbent. Momentum is shown in Polls while better turnout is not. That is why I have Republicans who are down or tied winning. But in cases such as RI and New Jersey there is no efficient system to help the Republicans while in Montana, Ohio, Indiana and here in PA they GOP can make up a lot of points. But turnout can only do so much; some Republicans like Weldon and Sherwood will feel the wrath of Republicans who are disappointed with them. Others like Gerlcah, Allen, and Talent will be able to ride the machine to victory.

PA House- GOP loses seats but retains Control

PA Senate stays the same with GOP Control

US House – GOP 219-Dems 216

US Senate GOP 52, Dems 46, Is 2(this has both my tossups going D)