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I have a bet with Joe Valenti of PittstonPolitics.com.
Let him tell it:
This bet came after much debate at a blogger roundup this past week in Plains.
Gort says the Democrats will hold the US House of Representatives after the general election.
I, however, think its 1994 all over again and the Republicans will take control of the House.
Both of us feel the Dems will continue to hold the Senate.
Next came the deliberation. What are the stakes?
Some in attendance thought money or dinner.
Nah, neither of us liked that idea.
Then Gort came up with something that would make my stomach curdle.
“If the Democrats hold the House,” Gort said, “you have to replace your picture at the top of your site with Nancy Pelosi.”
“And if the Republicans take control,” Gort continued, “I have to use Newt Gingrich’s photo.”
Wow! Those are some pretty tough stakes, but I agreed.
The only question left is how long do we have to leave the photo up?
I think we should change the bet. In the unlikely chance that the GOP wins the House I should post a pic of the new Speaker. That chain smoking guy with the orange skin I think his name is Boner or something.
One week max.
Will the Dems hold on. Vote in the poll on the sidebar.
7 hours ago
12 comments:
if the GOP wins the house they win the senate, no one has ever taken control of the house without alos taking or keeping control of the senate.
Also there is a good chance that oif the dems lose big but keep control pelosi is out. and the GOP may go with cantor becuase gohner is a douche, then again he is kida douchey too ron paul for speaker
It is actually in the GOP's best interest to not win the house - be short by 4 to 6 votes. That would accomplish a stalemate and nothing would get done for the next two years. Futher, this would set the stage to blame the Dems for not fixing anything and could - and I do mean could - cause O'Bama to lose in 2012.
If the goal really is to repeal healthcare reform because it is an over reach of the federal government; that cannot be accomplished with a democrate as President - would never have the votes to override a veto.
So, heres to the GOP winning 215 seats and the dems keeping 220 - Nancy will be out regardless and Denny Hoyer will become the next demon.
You heard it here first on Gort42.
This is not 1994. The GOP has no gimmick as they did with the famous "Contract with America" (which they broke).
The party has no strong leadership as it enjoyed under Newt back in '94. Most of the country does not know John Boehner, and that is to the GOP's advantage, because if they knew him they wouldn't like him.
The media was caught off guard back in '94. It wasn't until a few weeks before the elections that it was considered probable for the GOP to take both houses. Now, today, the media wants to be first with the "inaccurate" story--how many times have we seen that in this computer age??
Even if the Dems hold the house by only a few seats it will be an overwhelming Obama victory, since Rushbo, Hannity, and the rest are assuring us of a great tea party revolution this November.
We shall see.
Pope George Ringo,
Often wrong - never in doubt.
Many far smarter than I seem to think the losses will be moderate. Over at Nate Silver's fivethirtyeight.com they've done quite a few analyses of the upcoming election and 1994 and 2010 are very different. I don't see the Democrats losing control at all.
RE: Tom B. Not to mention that the GOP is lax in the ideas department. All they call for is deficit reduction (we all know how good they were at that) but won't specifically state "what" they will cut. Anyway, major tax cuts actually enhance the deficit, so there's a bit of silly math here. If a plumber comes to your house and fucks up your pipes would you rehire him a few years later??? Common sense, folks, plain common sense will decide this election for the Dems.
Pope GR - Voters are fickel - and have very short memories.
But interesting to hear you critize the GOP for a lack of ideas, Obama didn't put forth a single idea other than "change you can believe in". The only change I'll have is a nickle in my pocket after the tax increases WE ARE ALL going to pay.
I'm really sick of the jerks who continue to think that Health Care Reform is a bad idea. Of course, they are notpart of the 30 million without nor are they part of the group that don't qualify for insurance due to a pre existing condition. They could care less that the Party of No stopped unemployement benefits for bundles of poor folk and then they pontificate that the Repubicans will win the House. Assholes! As for Valenti predicting a political result --- Now that's funy.
How about the 279 million americans that have insurance and are satisfied. Should we bend over backwards and destroy our country for a small percentage and of that percentage how many can afford insurance but choose not to get it. that's right democrats only care about choice when it comes to killing an undelivered baby.
If you took the time to read the intent, you will see and you certainly should have heard it said over and over .... IF YOU ARE SATISFIED WITH YOUR CURRENT COVERAGE, KEEP IT! WTF don't you understand about that? As I said, JERKS and there is no hope for you so go vote for Lou just as you probably did for Bush, TWICE!
Anon 9:24, you write that the health care reform allows you to keep your current coverage if you're happy with it. In that simple statement you are correct. However, please answer why, starting in 2014, those of us with employer provided coverage, will have a new line on our W2s from our employer that states the value of that insurance?
The reform does NOT provide coverage, it mandates coverage. My employer has already discontinued our very good plan in anticipation of this and increases in her own taxes. She has also stated that once the mandate goes into effect she will no longer provide coverage at all. My husband and I have decided that when this goes into effect we will pay the fine and take our chances with out insurance.
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