4 hours ago
Tuesday, April 25, 2006
Carney gaining, Sherwood tanking
I got an email alert from our friends at Politics PA about a new poll in the 10th Congressional District from an outfit called Momentum Analysis, LLC.
From the press release:
Our recent polling results show clear evidence of Congressman Don Sherwood’s vulnerability. Not only is Sherwood weak, but his unpopularity is amplified by President Bush's failures, even in a district like Pennsylvania’s 10th CD that has historically been Republican and conservative. This environment yields a strong showing for Democratic challenger Chris Carney, who is within clear striking distance of an incumbent who voters feel does not share their values, and is too closely aligned with a weak President.
The key points of the poll:
-Carney trails Sherwood by just 6 points with 43%. Sherwood currently polls at 48%, with 8% undecided.
- 27% of the respondents say they would vote to replace Sherwood while only 21% say they would vote to re-elect Sherwood.
- 57% of respondents gave Sherwood a negative job performance rating of either "only fair" or "poor." More than 48% of Republicans polled evaluated his job performance negatively.
-President Bush’s net unfavorable is 54% versus favorable at 43%.- 65% of the voters say the country is on the wrong track versus 27% who say the country is on the right track.
Some other tidbits:
Voters feel key positive traits are least descriptive of Sherwood. Barely more than one in ten feel "honest" or "has traditional family values" describe Sherwood "very well" (13% and 12%, respectively). Astoundingly, the phrase we tested that describes Sherwood least well is “shares your values” (12% describes very well). Many political professionals and handicappers view a candidate’s performance on this dimension as one of the key predictors of their success. That even Republicans are more likely to feel Sherwood is an embarrassment (18% "describes very well") than that he shares their values (16%), shows how weak Sherwood's chances are this November.
Another measure of Sherwood's weakness is the so-called re-elect question, where no opponent is named. When asked whether they would vote to re-elect Sherwood, whether they'd consider someone else, or vote to replace him, a plurality (33%) said they were not sure. Notably, more said they would vote to replace him (27%) than would vote to re-elect him (21%), and another 18% said they would consider someone else.