Friday, January 11, 2008

First 10th CD poll

From the Politico:

Poll Shows Carney In Strong Position For Reelection

A newly-released poll suggests that Rep. Chris Carney (D-Pa.) is in strong shape for reelection, and is benefiting from his conservative district’s surprisingly high disapproval of President Bush.Carney has a 58 percent approval rating in the district, with only 12 percent of registered voters disapproving of his job performance. Even a majority of registered Republicans in the district (53 percent) said they approve of Carney’s performance in office.

In a head-to-head matchup against his two declared Republican rivals, businessmen Chris Hackett and Dan Meuser, he leads by comfortable margins. Carney leads Meuser 53 percent to 23 percent, while he holds a 55 percent to 21 percent lead over Meuser.

Even more striking than Carney’s high approval ratings is the fact that President Bush is viewed unfavorably by a majority of voters in this solidly-conservative northeastern Pennsylvania district. While Bush won 60 percent of the vote here in 2004, only 45 percent of respondents said they viewed the president favorably today. (Fifty-two percent view Bush unfavorably.)


kar said...


I respect you, really I do, but your post raises, actually begs some questions.

Who may I inquire initiated, or paid for this poll, was it partisan or independent?

I don't claim to be an expert on polling, God knows they seem to be flexible enough to tell you exactly what you want to hear.

Bur regardless the source, and I'm guessing it was Carney or some democratic group, wouldn't you agree that these things tend to firm up once the eventual pairing is settled?

Let's see what additional polling reveals, especially in light of the recent endorsement of Meuser by Lou Barletta.

We're going to have plenty of time to have fun over the course of the next 10 months, let's not get ahead of ourselves.

Peace out.

kar said...

Never mind, I clicked on the politico link, a democratic polling group, shocking.

I'm guessing we'll see all types of "polls" between now & November, and we all know that the only one that matters is the actual vote count.

Oh, and it's a month old, and Meuser hasn't started his ad campaign, and Carney, fwiw, is an incumbent.

Frankly, I'd find "cold comfort" in this if I were Carney.

FYI, the President isn't running this year.


Gort said...


Just the first of many to come. I'll post them as I get them. Momentum Analysis maybe a Democratic outfit but their last poll of the district in Oct 2006 had the spread at Carney plus 6, which was spot on.

Anonymous said...

well i bet we will see more polling by democrats considering the dem congreggisoal committee has money and ther repulicans dont

kar said...

Yeah I guess we will see a lot more polling data.

I'd like to see the first non-partisan poll, that might be more indicative of where this race is heading.

This "poll" conducted by a democratic polling group,commissioned by a partisan PAC, which by the way has contributed to Carney, does nothing but give a false feeling of security to Carney.

All light, no heat.


Anonymous said...

Kind of reminds me of the Peters poll. We all know how important that one was.

Anonymous said...

kar, if it makes you feel better to dismiss the poll thats fine but it will be a big boost to Carney for fund raising. Favorable vs Unfavorable is the most accurate question when polling. With 58% favorable and only 12% unfavorably you can not just dismiss it as biased .

goyankees69 said...

Ok, so a democratic polling group conducts a poll for a liberal PAC
measuring support for a liberal congressman, and the results show the liberal congressman polls well against his republican rivals.

I was born at night, but it wasn't last night, how much faith should anyone have in this poll?

Both major republican candidiates seem to be picking up steam, and whoever emerges from the primary will be in a strong position to unseat Carney.

Hackett, Meuser, I haven't decided yet, but either way we get rid of Carney, and that's what it's all about.

We conservatives need to make sure we don't forget that un-seating Carney is job one.

Anonymous said...

anon- nice try- running a poll against two people who have no name recognition and did no advertising. Carney must be feeling the heat both also raised alot of money. Seems like another first termer will bite the dust. I can just hear Chris going please Lou don't run I need the money more than Kanjo.