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Dem: 298 - Rep: 240
Right now I would say it's going to be a blowout.
Colors are reversed.
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The way I see it.
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Solid McCain:
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South Carolina 8 Electoral Votes, Tennessee 11, Alabama 9, Kentucky 8, Nebraska 5, Oklahoma 7, Idaho 4, Wyoming 3, Utah 5.
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Lean McCain:
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Mississippi 6, Louisiana 9, Arkansas 6, Texas 34, South Dakota 3, Kansas 6, Arizona 10, West Virginia 5
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Toss Up:
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New Hampshire 4, North Carolina 15, Georgia 15, Florida 27, Missouri 11, Ohio 20, Indiana 11, North Dakota 3, Montana 3, Alaska 3, Michigan 17
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Lean Obama:
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Pennsylvania 21, Virginia 13, Minnesota 10, Iowa 7, Colorado 9, New Mexico 5, Nevada 5
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Solid Obama:
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Maine 4, Vermont 3, Massachusetts 12, Connecticut 7, Rhode Island 4, New York 31, New Jersey 15, Delaware 3, Maryland 10, DC 3, Illinois 21, Wisconsin 10, California 55, Washington 11, Oregon 7, Hawaii 4
Right now I would say it's going to be a blowout.
13 comments:
I think it is still way too early to predict. It most certainly won't be a blowout. PA and Ohio going the other way would change everything.
Besides, from all the layoffs inside the dying print medium. The press needs to build a compelling race to save their own skins.
It's still coming down to how well or how badly the picks for VP go down. "Bitter" Hillary supporters may stay home when their hero is thrown to the sidelines.
Young man, you yourself did not inscribe to whom the "blowout" shall benefit. If you are referring to Mr. Obama then I must respectfully tell you to spend more time in the library than at the frat parties. The Senator's national lead in the polls (which was never no more than 7 or 8 points at best) is dwindling fast. The latest Gallup ranking has him dead even with Mr. McCain. At this point in 1988 Michael Dukakis was enjoying a 16 point lead nationally over Mr. Bush Sr. In a year where the nation is suffering from economic woes and war fatigue, to have the Democratic nominee to be dead even with the GOP candidate does indeed spell blowout-- a blowout for the Republican candidate Mr. McCain. I understand that my predictions shall upset all of the young children who support Mr. Obama, but I had warned of this very situation months ago in this very venue, when I lectured on the importance of the young people who cast votes out of a sort of pop star frenzied atmosphere. Had Mrs. Clinton been the nominee, she would have been a more formidable opponent for Mr. McCain. Even Mr. Obama's own supporters are chastising him at town hall meetings (such is the Democratic Party creed, I assume). In the end one of us shall be proven to be correct. Class dismissed.
With all do respect Professor Cleaver, where did you get your degree. Polls are just a way for people like us to keep a conversation going. People want a change and that is the only thing that matters. So take all of your numbers and visit a dark room some where!!! Gort I totally agree with your assessment on a blowout, however I have a few different opinions as far as the individual states go. I usually rely on www.electoral-vote.com for my information as this website is updated daily and takes every poll into consideration.
I like to use electoral-vote and Real Clear Politic's electoral maps. Since May or so Obama has had a steady lead in enough states to get a victory. Is it all going to fall down the way the polls show? I doubt it.
And Obama's lead depends on what poll you use. Don't forget that each polls differs in how the pollster weights the poll and what methods they use. There is an article online about this. They show that polls that use landline only phone polling shows a closer race, but a cellphone user only poll indicates a wider lead for Obama. There are more polls than Gallup. An average of the polls show Obama with around a 2.5% lead.
The popular vote in the last election was closer. Bush won with 2.4% of the popular vote. But as we know it is the electoral college that decides.
And Obama will win it. The state polling trends indicate that. A lot of Bush states are in play. Assuming Obama wins all the Kerry states he just needs to win Iowa, Colorado, and New Mexico. And most pollsters indicate victory in those states. Plus there is a dead heat in Virginia, and other close races in Red states such as Montana, Nevada, Indiana, and North Carolina.
Economic woes benefits the Democratic candidates. Most voters, especially blue collar and middle class, know that the Democrats will help them more than a Republican. This is a benefit to Obama. Plus we have on tape McCain saying that the economy isn't his strong point. At least 70% of voters say that the economy is their top issue. McCain is going to be hit hard because he is admittedly weak on the economy.
People want a change from George Bush and his Republican policies. It will be hard for people to elect another Republican when the exiting president is a Republican who is a disaster with poor approval ratings. It is proven that it is very hard for a candidate of the same party to succeed an popular president of their party.
There are so many factors not taken into conditions in these polls.
The Democrats have the great benefit of having a surge in Democratic registration in many key states and most states all around. In many states Republican numbers have dropped.
Obama has a huge advantage with Latinos. Over 60% are preferring him to McCain. That is going to help where Latinos are a decisive voting bloc.
Obama has the youth voter in his hands. A great benefit to states with large college populations.
And Obama does not have George Bush backing him. That may just seal the deal.
And am I the only one who is getting tired of Cleaver's pretensions and ageist comments?
RE: jedimaster: I RECALL AN EVENT MANY YEARS AGO WHILST I WAS TEACHING IN VERMONT; MY YOUNG DAUGHTER WANTED A PONY FOR HER BIRTHDAY. AS I WAS A JUNIOR PROFESSOR WITHOUT TENURE (AND THE LAND TO ACCOMODATE A PONY), I TOLD HER THAT SHE COULD NOT HAVE IT AND THAT IT WAS IMPORTANT FOR HER TO UNDERSTAND THAT SOMETIMES IN LIFE ONE CANNOT ALWAYS GET WHAT ONE WANTS. WELL, SHE THREW AN ENORMOUS TANTRUM AND THEN GAVE ME THE SILENT TREATMENT FOR A FEW HOURS. BUT WHAT TRULY STRUCK ME (AND TOUCHED MY HEART) WAS WHEN I SAW HER PRANCING AROUND THE BACKYARD HOLDING A MOP AND PRETENDING THAT SHE ACTUALLY DID GET HER PONY. YOU SEE, SOMETIMES LITTLE CHILDREN CAN WANT SOMETHING SO BADLY THAT THEY WILL GO TO ANY EXTREME TO ACTUALLY BELIEVE THAT THEY HAVE ATTAINED IT. WHILE THIS WAS AN AMUSING TRAIT TO SEE IN MY LITTLE GIRL, SO FAR AS A PONY IS CONCERNED; I FIND IT QUITE ALARMING WHEN IT TRANSFERS TO THOSE WHO SUPPORT MR. OBAMA. I DO NOT DEVALUE THE IDEA OF HOPES AND DREAMS, BUT I MUST BE FRANK WITH YOU AND THE OTHER YOUNGSTERS AND TELL YOU THAT IF YOU TRULY BELIEVE THIS MAN OF LITTLE EXPERTISE AND EVEN LESS KNOWLEDGE WILL BE ELECTED PRESIDENT, THEN MAYBE YOU TOO NEED TO FIND A MOP IN YOUR MOTHER'S KITCHEN TO PLAY WITH. CLASS DISMISSED.
What I find offensive, ignorant, and ageist on your part is your stereotyping of young people and supporters of Obama. It is plain ignorance on your part. You are being blatantly obtuse.
Anyway, the odds favor an Obama victory so tell me Cleaver, what are you going to do in the event that he wins?
You can tell how a person is by how they engage those with differing viewpoints. I don't like many positions people on the right stand for, but at least I and many people on this blog engage them with respect and dignity. The same can't be said of yourself in how you treat others Cleaver.
Quick, all you whippersnappers get off the Prof's lawn!!!!!!!!!!!!
Re: jedi; I DO NOT WISH TO GET INTO A ROW WITH YOU YOUNG MAN BUT I DO FEEL A NEED TO RESPOND TO YOUR JUVENILE ATTACKS UPON ME. I BEGAN MY CORRESPONDENCE ON THE OBAMA/MCCAIN POST BY EXPRESSING MY OPINION--THERE WAS NO MALICE, INDEED I THOUGHT THAT I EXPRESSED MYSELF IN WHAT EVEN A FACTORY WORKER COULD DESCRIBE AS A CIVIL MANNER. WHAT I BELIEVE YOUNG MAN IS THAT HAD I EXPRESSED MYSELF IN THE IDENTICAL MANNER BUT WERE SUPPORTING MR. OBAMA OVER MR. MCCAIN, YOU WOULD HAVE EXPRESSED NO PROTEST TO MY POSTING. TO PUT IT IN A NUTSHELL, I TRULY FEEL THAT YOU ARE LASHING OUT AT ME BECAUSE I DO NOT SHARE YOUR VIEW. THIS, HOWEVER, DOES NOT MAKE ME ANGRY; I TRULY ADMIRE YOUR YOUTHFUL IDEALISM. BUT ALAS, AS THEY SAY, "I WAS OLDER THEN, I AM YOUNGER THAN THAT NOW". IN OTHER WORDS, IDEALISM IS WASTED ON THE YOUNG, BUT MOST CERTAINLY BELONGS WITH THEM. WHEN YOU GET OUT INTO THE REAL WORLD YOU SHALL UNDERSTAND THAT LIFE IS A LOT MORE COMPLICATED THAN THE POLITICOS ON THE LEFT WOULD CARE FOR YOU TO BELIEVE. I MUST BE OFF, I HAVE A GOLF GAME AT THREE. CLASS DISMISSED.
My Wife has talked about writing in Hillary. I guess if Hillary is not VP then many sensible moderates will be tempted to write her in for President. As long as McCain proceeds nose to checks to Bush a Hillary write in may get some traction from the people offended by the one.
Barry
I never said there was malice Prof. I criticized you for your condescending attitude towards young people.
It doesn't matter to me your position. I have many fun debates with conservatives such as NEPAConservative who always engages in a fun argument. You on the other hand make snide and ignorant comments about anyone who is younger than you which seems to be everyone who posts to this blog.
Everything goes fine and then you come along and you start with the ageism, the snide remarks, and the seething condescension.
Keep in mind, as I'm sure all you astue fellows will, that it's the electoral college that counts. In 1968, Nixon had 303 electoral votes to Humphrey's 191 and Wallace's 45 but only prevailed in the popular vote by less than 100,000. In 1988, Bush won a blowout in the Electoral College but Dukakis lost states by a slim margin giving the middle of the road Dems like Bill Clinton to think they had a shot in '92. It's way too early and depends on the running mates, the turn of a simple phrase that can be distorted as well as the mood of a fickle and sometomes fickle and unintelligent electorate.
David,
It's such a close shave on the popular vote because states like New York and California lean heavily democratic. For as much as we complain about the ideal "one man one vote" we give ourselves the opportunity to maintain something close to the status quo because both sides must appeal to a wider demographic.
My vote in terms of the two party system is worthless in a national election. It only becomes relevant when I choose a third party and cross my fingers that I become one of the 5% that forces additional viewpoints into the system.
fuck you professor
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