Thursday, August 07, 2008

PA 11th poll

It comes from the Lou Barletta campaign so take it with a grain (boulder) of salt.




The poll, conducted by Susquehanna Polling and Research in Harrisburg, found Barletta leading the longtime incumbent, 45 percent to 41 percent. An earlier poll commissioned by the campaign, released in in June, found similar results. In both polls, a margin of error of almost 5 percent means the two candidates continue to be in a dead heat in a race that has grown increasingly contentious.


Without the methodology and cross tabs it's hard to decide if this is a valid picture of the race. It's not uncommon for a campaign to put out favorable poll numbers in a race whatever the source


The TL also covers it:


“We don’t comment on our opponents’ polls and we don’t release the data in ours,” Kanjorski campaign spokesman Ed Mitchell said.
Barletta spokesman Shawn Kelly said the campaign is pleased with the results, especially since Kanjorski has begun airing television ads.






12 comments:

Michelle D said...

The undecided voters are going to write in Paris Hilton.

http://www.funnyordie.com/videos/64ad536a6d

See you at the debates, bitches!

JediMaster9780 said...

I'd rather Paris than Lou or Paul.

I am in the undecided on this. Most likely I'm going to write in a candidate. Say what you want about that, but I don't like either of them.

But I can live if Paul Kanjorski wins again. If Lou wins then I'll work to defeat him in 2010.

NEPAConseravtive said...

I will convert you to a conservative before you have the opportunity to try and defeat the evil Lou Barletta Young Jedi.

What amazes me about your comment is you don't even know what type of job Lou is capable of, but yet you are already saying down with Lou in 2010. I guess a republican can never do anything right ?

Have you been drinking tonight ?

JediMaster9780 said...

You have 88 days to convert me Darth. You can't shake this liberal.

professor milburn cleaver, opa said...

I find it quite ironic that Mr. Kanjorski, who provided a quarter century of service to his constituents, will most likely lose his seat in November simply because Mr. Obama is King Midas in reverse; everything the Senator touches turns to rust. As we all know now (and as I had predicted months ago), Mr. Obama's shine is disappearing rapidly and come November the little children who are responsible for his nomination will most likely stay at home playing video games while the more mature voters will come out and cast their ballots for Mr. McCain and Mr. Barletta. Of course, had Mrs. Clinton been nominated she would have swept the Northeastern part of the Commonwealth as well as the big cities, thereby giving her the 21 electoral votes. I do not mean to put the young people into the position of hearing me say "I told you so", but facts beget facts. There are many out there who look at politics as a serious subject, and many of them read Gort 42. Most have been following the profession for many years and some on this blog have participated. What is irritating to me is the fact the young people come onto the scene and treat the profession that many of us laud as if it were the "fad of the day". What this accomplishes is comparable to throwing a monkey wrench into a well tuned engine and thereby breaking it and ruining the ride for everyone else.
I apologize if I offend some of the young, but instead of retorting with snide juvenile remarks, perhaps they can show some backbone and actually read up on a subject of which they know very little or nothing about. Class dismissed.

JediMaster9780 said...

Please you can do without the condescending remarks too. You symbolize everything that people find pretentious about politics. That it is for old white guys.

Instead of making ignorant assumptions Cleaver, perhaps you should know that I do know a lot about politics. You assume that I don't because I don't support Lou Barletta.

professor milburn cleaver, opa said...

Re:jedi: I recall back in my "salad days" when I first began to teach, my mentor, Dr. Rowan gave me what I consider to be the sagest advice: "Always prepare your lessons ahead of time, don't walk out of that classroom with the student disrespecting you and more importantly feeling that they know more than you do." I only bring up this little story because of your previous post which basically accused me of being a racist. You basically accuse me of symbolizing that politics is "for old white guys", as you so eloquently expressed it. You then follow up by lecturing me on making ignorant assumptions. Well, my son, it appears that your entire posting was itself an ignorant assumption.
I would give you the advice my mentor gave me: always prepare before you speak. Class dismissed.

JediMaster9780 said...

If you believe that was an accusation of racism then you need to re-read that. Every single post you have made on this blog basically lays it out that young people...let me rephrase...young liberals should stay out of politics because they are not supporting Republicans.

I accused you of being pretentious. Which is rather evident due to your slams of liberals, the youth, etc etc.

See the problem seems to be that, you believe you are all knowledgeable and you cannot accept other people's viewpoints.

professor milburn cleaver, opa said...

Young man, I do not have the time for this, I have a pre-orientation seminar which I must soon leave to attend but I must point out several errors that you made in reference to myself. First of all, when did I ever indicate in any of my essays that I was a Republican? This is something that you yourself came up with in your youthful imagination. As a lecturer and a professor, I feel it necessary to keep my political party affiliation to myself. And in all fairness, I have never graded a student on his/her political leanings, only on the heart of the content of the writing. Many times I have stated that Mrs. Clinton was the strongest candidate for the Democrats, I do not make this statement as some sort of a grand conspiracy to help Mr. McCain secure the weakest opponent (as opposed to your man Mr. Obama). I made the statement after much research and thought. This too, of course, does not mean that I support Mrs. Clinton. Whether or not I support Mr. McCain is not the issue, the issue is civility and I have practiced it. I have never called you a name or made a personal attack upon your name. And yes, you are correct, I am a little older than you, but with age (as you shall one day find out) comes wisdom. I have encountered many former students over the years who once felt as you do toward politics and towards myself and nearly each and every one of them has told me that I was right and they were wrong. I do enjoy reading your commentaries as it is nice to see a young person show some interest; and perhaps I shall visit your blog and comment on your postings when I have the time. I only hope, young fellow, that your interest is not akin to my young son's interest in playing the guitar years ago. He would come home every day and go to his room to practice and then about two months later he put the guitar in the corner and never used it again. That was harmless, but when some young person votes, or urges others to follow an opinion, as does Mr.Obama and his blogging community, well, my son, that kind of fad can have destructive and permanent damage--far far more than a lonely guitar leaning against a wall. Class dismissed.

JediMaster9780 said...

I never accused you of being a Republican. You have expressed support enthusiastically for Republican candidates in several posts.

I am not some late bloomer to politics. I'm not someone who was once apathetic and jumped on the Obama campaign. I've been interested in history and politics since I was six or seven. I had the presidents memorized because I loved reading all of their biographies in my grandparent's encyclopedias. Up until I was 15 I held conservative viewpoints very much inline with the Republican party. Things changed my sophomore year of highschool.

Politics and history is something I have known and read since on since I was around 7. It started off with encyclopedias.

It is not something I have ever considered giving up.

Anonymous said...

I too think this race will be much closer than anyone could have predicted at the beginning of the year. Kanjo hasn't learned when to keep his mouth shut. I do believe Hillary will be back in town to help him (and Carney).

And some casual observations on the point-counterpoint above. The difference between young liberals and older conervatives is real-world experience. Many of us moved on from high school and college with stars in our eyes and a plan to conquer the world. We were young and gullible, hanging on to every promising word we heard and believed. Then life happened.

You had to balance a checkbook instead of begging for Dad to bail you out one more time. There was no more free beer at the frat on weekends.

I'm just surprised some who dutifully voted for change in 2006 believing that the war would end, and money would fall from the sky, have not awakened. Instead they're paying more for their McDonalds double cheeseburger - not because too much corn is being used for ethanol and farmers have to spend more for feed to produce the milk, but because the minimum wage went up, again.

Dana said...

There has always been a difference between what "likely voters" and the public in general do; in our rather low-participation system, the electorate is older and whiter than the population in general; in that, Dr Cleaver is right.

I'm not the local politics expert our esteemed host is, so I don't really have an educated opinion on the 11th District race; I do know that I'll vote for Mr Barletta.

I was saying on my poor site as long ago as last December that Barack Obama had a real problem in the general election, and that problem is entirely due to the fact that he is black. As Hillary Clinton increased the racial nature of her candidacy, she started to pick up steam, as the results of our own primary attest. By that time, she had fallen too far behind to catch up, but from the beginning of March she won a clear majority of the votes, a majority of the primaries and a majority of the elected delegates. If Mr Obama goes into the general election with anything less than a 5% advantage over John McCain, John McCain will win.

The Obama campaign reminds me of the 2007 Dallas Cowboys. They ran out to a 12-1 record, secured home field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs, and then crashed, losing two out of three, with the sole win being over the hapless Panthers. Their first playoff game, and they lost to the Giants.