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11 hours ago
Monday, April 21, 2008
Who's going to win tomorrow?
I usually do some predictions the weekend before the election but after a busy couple of days I'm a bit behind. Just about all the polls and talking heads on TV tell us Hillary Clinton will beat Barrack Obama in PA with the question being by what margin. Both sides have gone just about totally negative particularly the robo calls from the Clinton campaign. I think Clinton has to win by at least 10% to keep going and that may not even be enough. And if Obama somehow pulls an upset, which I doubt, it's over.
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None of the pundits have talked too much about $$$$. Obama is raising money and without a big victory, Obama could really outspend Clinton.
i predict paul kanjorski and lou barletta will breeze to victory in their primary.
Clinton will win PA.
Cahir will win his primary for PA 05, with Vilello in close second. On the GOP side, I think it's an open race. I fear Walker or Shaner getting the nod of the voters, but if they do it will be good for the democrats in the November race.
Big winner -- Pennsylvania Democrats! No matter the winner, the Dems in PA are the ultimate winners by demonstrating the blueness of PA in force!
Ther decision may well have been put off until North Carolina, coming up in two weeks. Mrs Clinton will probably win here, which will let her keep going. And one poll has her as having moved very slightly ahead of Mr Obama in the national survey.
I don't know if she's making a better case right now, or that Mr Obama has already peaked and is now coming back down.
But I don't see how the Demoicrats can not nominate Mr Obama. regardless of Pennsylvania or North Carolina, Mr Obama will finish ahead of Mrs Clinton in votes, in number of states won and number of delegates won. If the super-doopers decide that Mrs Clinton is the better candidate, and deny the nomination to Mr Obama, black voters may very well feel cheated, and sit this one out. The Democrats know that, without the black vote, they simply don't win -- and most of the super-doopers are elected officials themselves. They aren't going to weaken their own electoral chances to help Hillary Clinton!
If the enthusiasim of the obama volunteers is an indicator of how things will go, he will win PA.!
People are ready for a change.
I only fear that we have far too many in our area who think that Billary is sincere when she talks about her PA roots and that her roots will mean she will "take care of" PA.
It does not matter who has the most delegates going in to the convention; what matters is if the candidate has the amount of required delegates to be nominated. Believe it or not, conventions are NOT democratic in nature; they are a venue where delegates come to decide the best candidate. Primaries are in short, a mere "show" that have given the impression of being "binding" over the past years since the nominee of both parties has always won the majority of them. Teddy Roosevelt won all of the Republican primaries over Taft in 1912--he was denied the nomination. And those who are under the impression that Robert Kennedy's assassination in 1968 preempted his nomination for President are misguided. Hubert Humphrey would have still been nominated. In short, the delegates are free to change their minds and may well do so in September for a completely different dark horse. Did anyone say--Al Gore??? Bless you for indulging my rant.
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