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SurveyUSA (10/21-22/08, 620 LV) Obama 53% McCain 41%
Strategic Vision (R) (10/20-22/08, 1200 LV) Obama 50% McCain 43%
Big Ten (10/19-22/08, 566 LV) Obama 52% McCain 42%
Quinnipiac (10/16-20/08, 1425 LV) Obama 53% McCain 40%
Allstate/National Journal (10/16-20/08, 412 RV) Obama 51% McCain 41%
The national map
Obama 375 McCain 157 Ties 6
Dem pickups (vs. 2004): CO FL IN IA MO NV NM NC OH VA
GOP pickups (vs. 2004): None
McCain hasn't led in any PA poll since April and is behind in every state that voted for Kerry in 2004. He needs to flip at least one state and the GOP camp thinks PA is his best shot. Mac will be tagging along with Sarah Palin for 3 stops in the Commonwealth Monday and Tuesday in Pottsville, Hershey and Shippensburg. This is the first election in my memory that both the Prez and VP candidates are appearing together this late. Let's call it the Geezer and Gidget tour. And Barry is not ignoring us with appearances scheduled in Pittsburgh Monday and Chester on Tuesday.
I have some anecdotal evidence that Obama will win this thing. I get my hair cut at an old fashion barber shop in Edwardsville who's majority of clientele are older gentleman. My barber is running his own poll of customers on the Presidential race and it's McCain 31 Obama 30. If McCain doesn't win an overwhelming majority of old white guys it's going to be a blowout.
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Drudge is running a story of a tape from '01 in which Barak implies that there should be some sort of reparations for the victims of jim crow. This could be the twister that turns the tide in Mac's favor--whether true or not it will put Obama on the defensive in the crucial final week of the contest. I still stand by my prediction that this race will NOT be a blowout but a very competitive. The electoral and tracking poll numbers will be even by this weekend. Bless You All.
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