Monday, August 20, 2018

Republicans are touting a questionable poll

Many of my Trumplican friends are all excited abut an "independent poll" from Commonwealth Leaders Fund that shows Wagner  and Barletta within the margin of error. 
The poll reports Gov. Tom Wolf leading Scott Wagner 46% to 43%. Sen. Bob Casey leads Rep. Lou Barletta 47% to 45%.  
The polling, conducted via IVR interviews from Aug. 13-15, included 2,012 likely voters. 

I have never heard of the Commonwealth Leaders Fund and a google search came up empty. A link to the poll Topline View.

I have been reading polls for years and this one is ridiculous. The cross tabs show that Trump has positive favorable rating.  53% of those polled identified as either very conservative or somewhat conservative. Only20% polled considered themselves very liberal or somewhat liberal. 

They used the  dubious method  of IVR. 
To give you an example I told the last IVR poll that I got that I'm a 30 something Female Asian American who is a life long Republican but will vote for all the Democrats this fall. 

The real polls:

RCP Average4/4 - 6/25----48.032.0Wolf +16.0
Suffolk6/21 - 6/25500 LV4.44936Wolf +13
Franklin & Marshall6/4 - 6/10472 RV6.54829Wolf +19
Morning Call4/4 - 4/12414 RV5.54731Wolf +16

RCP Average4/4 - 6/25----46.330.3Casey +16.0
Suffolk6/21 - 6/25500 LV4.44732Casey +15
Franklin & Marshall6/4 - 6/10472 RV6.54427Casey +17
Morning Call4/4 - 4/12414 RV5.54832Ca

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