Saturday, September 02, 2006

Dead heat

Sherwood, Carney tight

The incumbent congressman leads by 4 points, but margin of error makes it even.

A partisan poll commissioned by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee shows a statistical dead heat in the race between incumbent Republican Don Sherwood and Democrat Chris Carney.

The poll of 402 registered voters in the 10th Congressional District, taken Aug. 21-23 showed Sherwood with 46 percent, Carney with 42 and the rest undecided. The margin of error is 4.9 percent.

The poll sample was 50 percent Republican, 39 percent Democrat and 11 percent independent or third party, according to committee press secretary Sarah Feinberg.

As with all partisan polls you have to take it with a grain of salt. They polled registered voters not likely voters and show only 12% undecided. Everybody knows about Sherwood's problems but Carney is still working on his name ID. I can't find a breakout on the DCCC website but Sherwood's negatives have to be through the roof. The feedback I'm getting from people I know in the district suggest it may not be this close. People know Sherwood and are disgusted with him but they don't know enough about Carney yet. As they find out more Carney I think he will be able to close the sale.

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